Saturday, March 13, 2010

Anecdotes vs Statistics

Walking in Canberra this past week and one day in Sydney led to some observations and conclusions that are probably a bit off:  that is, the rabbits that beat the rabbit-proof fence are not the only overly fertile invaders on this continent/island. 

Where ever I have gone, I have seen heaps of kids and many, many pregnant women.  And then today, I went for a reasonably quick walk from my hotel down to the park under the Sydney Harbor Bridge and then around and back to my hotel, and I saw something like seven or eight wedding parties.  Most were having their photographers take pictures along a scenic vista (and this area is mighty, mighty scenic) where the major concern was probably to make sure there was not another wedding party in the background of the shots.  The others had taken over a pub or two, including my own hotel.  There, several men in kilts and women also with legs showing were tossing back some excellent beer.

Anyhow, this led me to think that Australia's fertility rate might be higher than the European countries I visited last summer where pregnant women and small kids are not nearly as abundant.  As it turns out, I was half right.  Australia's 1.78 (children per woman) is much higher than Germany's 1.48, but a bit lower than France's 1.98.  And Australia does exceed Canada's 1.58, but all are below the US's 2.05, which leads all of the advanced democracies except New Zealand's 2.1 [source is here].

Anyhow, it may just be a regional or seasonal surge.  Or perhaps just I am generalizing way too much from a few noticeable belly buttons.

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